In 2024, the Express Entry system has experienced several significant changes, from routine updates on proof of funds requirements and the Immigration Minister Marc Millerโs intention to have more โdomestic drawsโ to significantly higher Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores and a month-long pause in draws.
ITAs Issued in the First Six Months of 2023
In the first half of 2023, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducted 13 Express Entry draws, issuing a total of 49,948 Invitations to Apply (ITAs). These draws included:
โฆ General draws (encompassing the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP))
โฆ Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws
โฆ FSWP-specific draws
ITAs Issued in the First Six Months of 2024
In contrast, the first half of 2024 saw 19 Express Entry draws, issuing 41,855 ITAs. The draw types included:
โฆ General draws
โฆ French language proficiency draws
โฆ Healthcare occupations draws
โฆ Agriculture and Agri-food occupations draws
โฆ Transport occupations draws
โฆ Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) occupations draws
โฆ PNP draws
โฆ CEC-specific draws
The additional draw types in 2024 are due to the new category-based selections, a policy introduced to allow candidates in specific categories to be invited for Canadian permanent residence, with less emphasis on CRS scores.
Comparison of ITAs and Express Entry Draws Between 2023 and 2024
Several contrasts have emerged between the two years. While 2023 had fewer draws (13 vs. 19), it issued more ITAs in the first six months compared to 2024 (49,948 in 2023 vs. 41,855 in 2024). The increase in the number and types of draws in 2024 is likely due to the introduction of category-based selection draws, which began in late 2023. These new draw types may also be impacting the CRS scores and sizes of general draws by altering the composition of the Express Entry pool.
General Draw Comparison:
2023:
โฆ Frequency: 8 general draws
โฆ Average draw size: 5,475 ITAs
โฆ Average CRS cut-off score: 489
2024:
โฆ Frequency: 9 general draws
โฆ Average draw size: 1,605 ITAs
โฆ Average CRS cut-off score: 536
While 2024 has seen more overall draws in the first half, the average draw size has decreased, with 7,000 fewer ITAs issued between January and June 2024. Additionally, the average CRS score cut-off in 2024 is nearly 50 points higher than in 2023.
Predictions for the Remainder of 2024
Express Entry in 2024 needs to address the deficit of 7,000 ITAs compared to the same period in 2023. This is crucial when considering IRCCโs Immigration Levels Plan, which targets 110,770 landings (permanent resident arrivals) for Express Entry in 2024, an increase from 82,800 in 2023.
These targets are for landings rather than ITAs, meaning IRCC likely plans for many newcomers to arrive in Canada within the year following their ITA issuance, accounting for processing and travel times. For example, ITAs issued in late 2023 will likely account for landings in 2024.
In 2023, IRCC issued 110,226 ITAs through Express Entry to meet the levels plan target. With higher allocations in 2024 and 2025, IRCC may issue more ITAs to meet larger immigration goals. Given the current shortfall of ITAs in 2024, the system might hold more frequent or larger draws throughout the rest of the year. However, this is only one potential scenario, and the exact number of ITAs for the remainder of the year remains uncertain.
